2016 Valuation Report

Building on the baseline valuation in 2015, the 2016 Valuation Report provides further insights into how the current Australian population is likely to use welfare in the future.

The 2016 Valuation Report reflects significant improvements to the underlying model to provide greater understanding of the welfare population and their expected outcomes.

The results support the Government’s decision to focus on young carers, young parents and young students transitioning directly to unemployment payments as priority groups for initial policy responses. These groups continue to have higher average future lifetime costs than the wider groups of all parents, carers and students.

The results also reinforce the initial baseline findings, with the projected total future lifetime cost of the welfare system still in excess of $4 trillion. This cost underscores the importance of meaningful reform to the welfare system. Importantly, the results also show that the Government’s policy changes in 2015-16 have contributed to an overall reduction of $28 billion in the future lifetime cost of welfare.

This analysis will help us to further develop evidence-based policies and programs and to direct them where they best deliver results.

Subsequent annual valuations will increase the evidence base and help identify what is working.


The 2016 valuation has been independently validated by the University of Queensland’s Institute for Social Science Research, in partnership with Deloitte.

The validation report found the 2016 valuation to be reasonable, well documented, accurate, fit for purpose and suitably adaptable.

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